Six portfolios, side by side
The same simulated history for all six, 1990 to 2025. Each takes a different risk. Compare the growth, the losses, the costs and how sure any of it is.
| Series | Start | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Plain world stock index | $10,000 in 1990-10 | $314,164 in 2025-12 |
| One fund | $10,000 in 1990-10 | $296,713 in 2025-12 |
| Simple lean | $10,000 in 1990-10 | $391,970 in 2025-12 |
| Full lean | $10,000 in 1990-10 | $553,929 in 2025-12 |
| Plus trend | $10,000 in 1990-10 | $763,532 in 2025-12 |
| Cautious | $10,000 in 1990-10 | $279,794 in 2025-12 |
| Higher growth | $10,000 in 1990-10 | $1,113,382 in 2025-12 |
The six in one table
| One fund | Simple lean | Full lean | Plus trend | Cautious | Higher growth | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funds | VT 100% | VT 65%, AVLV 15%, DFIV 10%, SPMO 10% | VTI 25%, AVLV 15%, SPMO 10%, AVUV 10%, DFIV 10%, AVDV 10%, IDMO 10%, VXUS 5%, AVES 5% | RSST 25%, VTI 17%, AVLV 8%, AVUV 5%, AVDV 8%, DFIV 7%, VXUS 5%, SPMO 5%, IDMO 5%, AVES 5%, SCHP 5%, GLDM 5% | SCHP 40%, RSST 15%, VTI 12%, AVLV 5%, VXUS 5%, DFIV 5%, AVDV 5%, VGLT 5%, GLDM 5%, SPMO 3% | RSST 35%, AVLV 10%, AVUV 5%, SPMO 10%, DFIV 15%, AVDV 10%, IDMO 10%, AVES 5% |
| Fee a year on $10,000 | $6 (0.06%) | $10 (0.10%) | $18 (0.18%) | $37 (0.37%) | $22 (0.22%) | $51 (0.51%) |
| $10,000 became, 1990 to 2025 | $297,000 | $392,000 | $554,000 | $764,000 | $280,000 | $1,110,000 |
| Worst fall, on $10,000 at the top | $4,720 (−52.8%) | $4,790 (−52.1%) | $4,750 (−52.5%) | $5,600 (−44.0%) | $8,190 (−18.1%) | $5,100 (−49.0%) |
| Months back to even | 63 months | 63 months | 62 months | 38 months | 18 months | 40 months |
| Best year | +36.8% in 2003 | +36.8% in 2003 | +40.8% in 2003 | +41.2% in 2003 | +26.9% in 1995 | +46.5% in 2003 |
| Worst year | −39.8% in 2008 | −38.2% in 2008 | −37.6% in 2008 | −30.7% in 2008 | −11.9% in 2022 | −34.2% in 2008 |
| 2008 | −39.8% | −38.2% | −37.6% | −30.7% | −8.6% | −34.2% |
| 2022 | −18.3% | −14.4% | −11.6% | −9.9% | −11.9% | −7.4% |
| Who it is for | Someone who wants the world's stock market in one fund | Someone who wants a small edge with four funds | Someone who will hold nine funds and wait out a decade behind the market | Someone with retirement-account room who wants a holding that can rise when stocks fall | Someone who wants smaller falls and will accept slower growth | Someone seeking more growth who can accept deeper losses and years behind Plus trend |
−18.1% $10,000 fell to $8,190 and took 18 months to get back.
| Series | Worst fall |
|---|---|
| Cautious | −18.1% |
| Plus trend | −44.0% |
How to choose
Start with when you need the money and how much of it you could watch disappear. Plus trend's modeled worst fall left $10,000 at $5,600. Higher growth left $5,100, and Cautious left $8,190. Higher growth reaches for more return by holding more of the same funds. Cut the rewards those strategies earned in the past and most of its advantage goes with them. These are different risk choices, and no past loss is a limit on a future one. The Higher growth page explains the evidence, and the holding guide covers cash needs and accounts.
If simplicity matters most, compare One fund with Simple lean. Full lean holds more funds, and can differ from the market by more. Plus trend adds a second strategy and two defensive holdings. Higher growth puts the most weight on the stock leans and on trend, in exchange for deeper falls and long stretches behind a simpler choice.
Cautious holds fewer stocks. It is not a cash reserve, and it does not protect you from loss. What you need to spend, the accounts you have and the tax on selling what you already own can each change which mix fits. Weigh those before switching for a return advantage that exists in a model.
What these numbers are
These are simulated portfolios built from market and style index returns, not the records of real funds. Holdings rebalance once a year. Current fund assumptions and dated constant fees, financing and trading charges are extended through history; fund-specific risks are omitted. The bond line is a modelled nominal ten-year US government bond standing in for inflation-protected bonds; Cautious also holds a long-government-bond index. One fund uses the VT model at a 0.06% annual fee. The plain stock benchmark uses VTI and VXUS globally and a US-market model on the long history; its fees and style exposures differ from VT. The 60/40 line holds 60% of the benchmark and 40% bonds. Dollars are nominal and before tax. The US value funds AVLV and AVUV carry profitability and investment loadings fitted from their filed returns in Experiment 056. This window runs from November 1990 to December 2025. The cheap stock benchmark and VT both use 65% US and 35% foreign stocks. Trend uses an index of trend-following returns before costs, then deducts assumed trend trading costs, and gold uses the London afternoon price. RSST itself began only in September 2023.
The long history
The US stock stand-in had its worst fall in the January 1932–May 2025 window: $10,000 went to $4,970 (−50.3%) and took 52 months to get back. Plus trend fell to $5,160 (−48.5%) and took 73 months. 60/40 fell to $6,970 (−30.3%), taking 72 months, and Cautious fell to $7,280 (−27.2%), taking 71 months. The worst fall happens on different dates for each one. The window starts after the trend rule has gathered enough history to size itself, so it leaves out the 1929–1931 decline. US data stands in for foreign holdings, ordinary bonds for inflation-protected ones, and gold earns the cash rate before 1968. These are models, not a record of any fund an investor could have bought.