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Kelly Portfolios

How to hold it

Pick a mix you can hold, put it into the accounts you actually have, and write down how you will review it.

Everything here about tax is US federal tax. State tax adds on top, and outside the US every line differs.

Before you invest

Keep money for near-term spending and emergencies out of anything that can fall sharply. Compare paying down expensive debt with investing, and check any employer retirement match and its vesting rules before deciding where new money goes.

A health savings account can be useful if you qualify. A high-deductible plan on its own does not make you eligible, and other coverage and Medicare count too. Check the IRS eligibility and contribution rules before contributing.

Which account

Set one mix across all your accounts at once. You do not need to hold every fund in every account.

A retirement account can defer or avoid the tax on what a fund pays out each year. That makes it a good home for taxable bond income and for some trend strategies. Broad stock funds are usually easier to hold in a taxable account. Foreign funds cut both ways: avoid US tax on their dividends and you give up the foreign tax credit.

The order depends on your tax rates, the room you have, what each fund pays out and what you will eventually withdraw. A Roth dollar and a pre-tax dollar are not the same dollar after tax. The calculator compares the Plus trend holdings on the numbers you enter. It does not assume everyone should fill their accounts in the same order.

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US federal rates, with the 3.8% surtax on investment income included where it applies. State tax is left out and adds to every line.

50 %

A Roth and a pre-tax account count the same here: neither pays yearly tax, and both lose the foreign tax you could otherwise claim back.

Fill the retirement account in this order: RSST, SCHP, IDMO, AVES, VXUS, DFIV, AVDV, AVUV, AVLV, VTI, SPMO, GLDM. RSST saves the most, $362 a year on every $10,000 of it; GLDM saves the least, $0, so it is the one to leave in the taxable account.

What each fund saves a year when $10,000 of it sits in a retirement account rather than a taxable one, at 23.8% on dividends taxed at the lower rate and 40.8% on income taxed like wages, and which account it lands in with 50% of the money in retirement accounts
#FundShareSaved a year on $10,000 of itGoes in
1RSSTUS stocks plus a trend-following strategy, counting all the income it has recorded25%$362Retirement account
2SCHPInflation-protected US government bonds5%$190Retirement account
3IDMOInvesco S&P International Developed Momentum ETF5%$148Retirement account
4AVESAvantis Emerging Markets Value ETF5%$84Retirement account
5VXUSVanguard Total International Stock ETF5%$65Retirement account
6DFIVDimensional International Value ETF7%$64Split between the two5% of your money fits
7AVDVAvantis International Small Cap Value ETF8%$55Taxable account
8AVUVAvantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF5%$45Taxable account
9AVLVAvantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF8%$42Taxable account
10VTIVanguard Total Stock Market ETF17%$25Taxable account
11SPMOInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF5%$20Taxable account
12GLDMGold, held as bullion in a trust5%$0Taxable account
  • RSST. Retirement account: its trend profits are taxed like wages, and most of them have not been paid out yet.
  • SCHP. Retirement account: bond interest is taxed like wages, and the inflation adjustment is taxed before it is paid.
  • IDMO. Retirement account: its reported year had 105% turnover and gain distributions, mostly taxed like wages.
  • AVES. Retirement account: a high dividend, less than half of it taxed at the lower rate.
  • VXUS. Retirement account: a foreign dividend near 2.7%, and the credit you would keep in a taxable account is a fifth of the tax you would pay there.
  • DFIV. Split between the two: 5% of your money fits, and the retirement account is full here.
  • AVDV. Taxable account: an estimated dividend near 2.8%, about a fifth of it taxed like wages.
  • AVUV. Taxable account: a US dividend near 1.9%, all of it taxed at the lower rate, and no capital-gain payouts.
  • AVLV. Taxable account: a US dividend near 1.8%, all of it taxed at the lower rate, and no capital-gain payouts.
  • VTI. Taxable account: a dividend near 1.1%, all of it taxed at the lower rate, so it costs little to leave in a taxable account.
  • SPMO. Taxable account: the smallest dividend of the stock funds, all of it taxed at the lower rate, and no capital-gain payouts despite 44% turnover.
  • GLDM. Taxable account: it pays nothing out, so there is no yearly tax to save; the up-to-28% collectibles rate it owes when sold is not in this ranking, and a Roth would remove it.

Computed at 23.8% on dividends taxed at the lower rate and 40.8% on income taxed like wages, on yields and withholding rates as of 2026-08-23. The saved-a-year column has already taken off the foreign tax the retirement account loses. The dollar figure is on $10,000 of the fund itself, not of the whole portfolio.

If an employer plan does not offer these tickers, compare its broad funds by what they hold and what they cost. A rollover is a separate decision: compare the total fees, the choice of investments, the withdrawal rules and the protection the account carries before moving retirement money. A longer fund menu does not by itself make an account better.

How to buy

Check that your broker offers each fund, and read the fees on the order preview. Buy by ticker in the proportions you chose. As a worked example, $10,000 in Plus trend is $2,500 of RSST, $1,700 of VTI, $800 of AVLV, $500 of AVUV, $800 of AVDV, $700 of DFIV, $500 of VXUS, $500 of SPMO, $500 of IDMO, $500 of AVES, $500 of SCHP and $500 of GLDM. Direct new money toward holdings below their targets, within the contribution limits and access rules of the accounts you use.

Rebalancing

Rebalancing keeps your mix where you set it. It does not promise extra return. If one taxable holding is already past its target for the whole portfolio, no trade in another account can fix that. Adding money, changing the target, or selling in the taxable account are what is left. The SEC's rebalancing guide describes these methods and their tax and fee tradeoffs.

When it falls

Sitting through a fall looks like this. In 2008 the six portfolios fell between 8.6% and 39.8% in one year, and in 2022 between 7.4% and 18.3%. At the worst point, $10,000 in the plain world stock index was worth $4,730 and took 63 months to get back to $10,000. Every number is a simulation from index data, before tax, over 1990 to 2025.

Each portfolio's return in calendar 2008 and 2022, what $10,000 was worth at the bottom of its worst fall, and the months it took to recover, 1990 to 2025, simulated
Portfolio 2008 2022 $10,000 at the bottom Months back to even
One fund −39.8% −18.3% $4,720 63
Simple lean −38.2% −14.4% $4,790 63
Full lean −37.6% −11.6% $4,750 62
Plus trend −30.7% −9.9% $5,600 38
Cautious −8.6% −11.9% $8,190 18
Higher growth −34.2% −7.4% $5,100 40
A plain world stock index −39.6% −17.8% $4,730 63

If RSST closes

A trend fund on its own uses money that would otherwise be in stocks or bonds, so it does not reproduce what RSST holds. Compare the whole mix you end up with, its fees and its tax. Trading within a retirement account generally does not create an immediate capital-gains tax, but account withdrawal rules still apply. The Plus trend page describes the fund's risks.

Broker fees

A broker can charge a purchase fee even when the ETF itself has a low annual fee. Check the exact ticker, account and order type before buying; charges can change. Include commissions, bid/ask spreads and account charges when comparing brokers.

The SEC's guide to fees and expenses explains what to look for.