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Kelly Portfolios

Six portfolios you can actually buy, tested as whole portfolios.

One is the plain world market. The other five try to beat it, or to fall less, using broad markets, investment styles and holdings meant to move when stocks do not. Pick by how long you can wait and how far you can watch it fall.

See the six portfolios How to choose

What $10,000 became $10,000 invested in 1990, month by month to 2025, on a scale where each gridline is a bigger step than the last. Plain world stock index finished on $314,000; One fund finished on $297,000; Simple lean finished on $392,000; Full lean finished on $554,000; Plus trend finished on $764,000; Cautious finished on $280,000; Higher growth finished on $1,110,000.
What $10,000 became: what each finished on
Series Start Finish
Plain world stock index $10,000 in 1990-10 $314,164 in 2025-12
One fund $10,000 in 1990-10 $296,713 in 2025-12
Simple lean $10,000 in 1990-10 $391,970 in 2025-12
Full lean $10,000 in 1990-10 $553,929 in 2025-12
Plus trend $10,000 in 1990-10 $763,532 in 2025-12
Cautious $10,000 in 1990-10 $279,794 in 2025-12
Higher growth $10,000 in 1990-10 $1,113,382 in 2025-12
Six portfolios and a plain world stock index (65% US stocks, 35% the rest of the world), 1990 to 2025. Each gridline is a bigger step than the last. Simulated from index data, not fund records: each fund is modeled as the indexes it tracks, less its fee and a trading charge. The trend part is an index before trading costs, and its fund has existed only since September 2023. The One fund curve models VT at its own fee. The plain index uses a cheaper two-fund regional basket. Both hold their regions in fixed proportions here.

Portfolio 1

One fund

For someone who wants to own the world's stock market in one fund.

One fund: VT 100% Each arc is one fund, sized by its share of the money invested. VT 100%
$10,000 became
$297,000
Worst fall
$4,720 (−52.8%)
Costs a year on $10,000
$6

1990 to 2025, simulated

Confident That it owns the whole world's stock market cheaply. Stocks can still fall a long way.

Portfolio 2

Simple lean

For someone who wants a low-cost lean toward cheap companies and rising shares, without holding many funds.

Simple lean: VT 65%, AVLV 15%, DFIV 10%, SPMO 10% Each arc is one fund, sized by its share of the money invested. VT 65% AVLV 15% DFIV 10% SPMO 10%
$10,000 became
$392,000
Worst fall
$4,790 (−52.1%)
Costs a year on $10,000
$10

1990 to 2025, simulated

Probably A small lean toward cheap and rising shares may pay over decades. It can also trail the market.

Portfolio 3

Full lean

For someone who will hold nine funds and sit through long stretches behind the market for a larger expected edge.

Full lean: VTI 25%, AVLV 15%, SPMO 10%, AVUV 10%, DFIV 10%, AVDV 10%, IDMO 10%, VXUS 5%, AVES 5% Each arc is one fund, sized by its share of the money invested. VTI 25% AVLV 15% SPMO 10% AVUV 10% DFIV 10% AVDV 10% IDMO 10% VXUS 5% AVES 5%
$10,000 became
$554,000
Worst fall
$4,750 (−52.5%)
Costs a year on $10,000
$18

1990 to 2025, simulated

Probably A bigger lean toward cheap and rising shares may add return. It can sit behind the market for years.

Portfolio 4

Plus trend

For someone with retirement-account room who wants a trend-following strategy, gold and inflation-protected bonds alongside the stocks.

Plus trend: RSST 25%, VTI 17%, AVLV 8%, AVUV 5%, AVDV 8%, DFIV 7%, VXUS 5%, SPMO 5%, IDMO 5%, AVES 5%, SCHP 5%, GLDM 5% Each arc is one fund, sized by its share of the money invested. RSST 25% VTI 17% AVLV 8% AVUV 5% AVDV 8% DFIV 7% VXUS 5% SPMO 5% IDMO 5% AVES 5% SCHP 5% GLDM 5%
$10,000 became
$764,000
Worst fall
$5,600 (−44.0%)
Costs a year on $10,000
$37

1990 to 2025, simulated

Probably Trend can help when markets keep moving one way. The fund is young, so what it adds is unclear.

Portfolio 5

Cautious

For someone who wants smaller falls and will accept slower growth to get them.

Cautious: SCHP 40%, RSST 15%, VTI 12%, AVLV 5%, VXUS 5%, DFIV 5%, AVDV 5%, VGLT 5%, GLDM 5%, SPMO 3% Each arc is one fund, sized by its share of the money invested. SCHP 40% RSST 15% VTI 12% AVLV 5% VXUS 5% DFIV 5% AVDV 5% VGLT 5% GLDM 5% SPMO 3%
$10,000 became
$280,000
Worst fall
$8,190 (−18.1%)
Costs a year on $10,000
$22

1990 to 2025, simulated

Maybe Holding fewer stocks should mean smaller falls. Bonds and gold carry risks of their own.

Portfolio 6

Higher growth

For someone who wants more growth from bigger bets on cheap companies, on rising shares and on trend, and can sit through deeper falls and years behind Plus trend.

Higher growth: RSST 35%, AVLV 10%, AVUV 5%, SPMO 10%, DFIV 15%, AVDV 10%, IDMO 10%, AVES 5% Each arc is one fund, sized by its share of the money invested. RSST 35% AVLV 10% AVUV 5% SPMO 10% DFIV 15% AVDV 10% IDMO 10% AVES 5%
$10,000 became
$1,110,000
Worst fall
$5,100 (−49.0%)
Costs a year on $10,000
$51

1990 to 2025, simulated

Maybe More of the same three ideas, for more growth. Falls are deeper, and the gain over Plus trend is uncertain.

Which one is for you

Start with when you need the money, how big a loss you could live with, and which risks you are willing to take. Keep money you need soon out of the part you invest in stocks. The losses below come out of the simulated histories. They are not limits on future losses. Each is on $10,000 held at the top, 1990 to 2025.

  • If you want one fund and no decisions, One fund. Its worst fall took $10,000 down to $4,720 (−52.8%) between 2007 and 2009; it was back above $10,000 after 63 months.
  • If you want a small edge over the market with four funds, Simple lean. Its worst fall took $10,000 down to $4,790 (−52.1%), back above $10,000 after 63 months.
  • If you will hold nine funds and can watch the market pull ahead for a decade without selling, Full lean. Its worst fall took $10,000 down to $4,750 (−52.5%), back above $10,000 after 62 months.
  • If you have retirement-account room and want something that can rise while stocks fall, Plus trend. Its worst fall took $10,000 down to $5,600 (−44.0%), back above $10,000 after 38 months.
  • If a fall of half would make you sell, Cautious. Its worst fall took $10,000 down to $8,190 (−18.1%), back above $10,000 after 18 months. It can still lose much more: on the long simulated history, across 1937 to 1938, the same mix fell 27.2%.
  • If you can accept deeper losses and years behind Plus trend while seeking more growth, Higher growth. It holds more of the value, momentum and trend funds. Its simulated worst fall took $10,000 to $5,100 (−49.0%). Whether it earns more is uncertain, and more so after tax.

One fund is the plain starting point. It does not decide how much of your money belongs in stocks at all. The holding guide covers cash needs and accounts. The stacking page asks what an extra fund has to earn to be worth holding.

How this was tested

The charts run the weights shown above through two simulated histories, with modeled fees and trading costs. They use index data in place of fund records: US data stands in for foreign stocks in the long history, and ordinary government bonds stand in for inflation-protected ones. Dollar figures are before tax. What you are reading is a model. It does not name a best portfolio, and it does not tell you your odds of beating the market. The About page explains the tests and what they cannot show.